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Thursday, January 29, 2004

Obligatory Primary Analysis

The Democratic presidential primary process is off and running and I am about as confused now as I was months ago when I was telling friends that this thing was going to come down to Dean and Kerry and Kerry would probably get the nod, because of his deep pockets and political connections. Then months later, that changed and I was swept up in Dean fever. But alas, the good doctor has a lot of momentum to over come. And I honestly don't know who I would support. Colorado's caucuses are in April. And by that time, the presumed nominee will be known and my participation in my precinct caucus will be just a mere formality. But it is important to keep a few things in mind. Of the total delegates needed to secure the party nomination, to date, only 1 percent have been identified. And if past performance is any indicator of future performance, Bill Clinton didn't win a primary until the tenth state in the circuit. John Kerry has won both the Iowa caucus and the NH primary. No candidate in a challenged race has ever won both and gone on to win the nomination. So there is still plenty to watch. Tuesday, February 3 and the following Tuesday, February 10 will be more telling than the two little sprints we have seen so far and perhaps, by then we will know who will be the challenger to Bush for 2004. And as dry as this may all sound, I really get excited and fascinated watching this political stuff. More fun that mini golf, that is for sure.